Fact-check: Did Canadian tourism to Florida dramatically decline amid Trump’s 51st state comments?

Canadians have long spent wintertime in Florida, trading in frigid temperatures for the Sunshine State’s sunny beaches and spending money on restaurants and hotels that cater to Canadian tourists.

But President Donald Trump’s rhetoric and actions targeting Canada has given some Canadians pause about spending money in the U.S. Trump has repeatedly said Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, called then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau "governor" and enacted substantial tariffs.

Canadians replied, excusez-moi?, and on April 28 elected Prime Minister Mark Carney’s liberal party. And according to a Florida congressman, many Canadians also ditched their Florida travel plans.

In a May 1 interview with Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat who represents parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties, CNN’s Wolf Blitzer said he had heard from Boca Raton, Florida, friends that many Canadians are not traveling to Florida because of Trump’s actions. Blitzer asked Moskowitz: "Have you noticed a drop in Canadian tourism to Florida?"

Moskowitz said, "It’s 80% less is what we’re seeing in the travel data." 

When we asked Moskowitz’s team for comment, his spokesperson Christopher Bowman said Moskowitz referred to an April 2 report by WPTV, the NBC affiliate in West Palm Beach. The WPTV report said, "Airline reservations from Canada to Florida are down 76% this April compared to April 2024." 

WPTV’s report cited OAG, an aviation firm. In a blog post, the firm said April bookings recorded in March for the entire U.S.-Canada market were down 75.7% compared with March 2024. It did not report Florida-specific numbers. 

OAG said the nationwide drop "suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute."

We found other sources of data pointing to a decline in Canadian visitors in Florida, but by much less than the 80% cited by Moskowitz.

In 2024, more Canadians traveled to Florida by air (2.1 million) than by other means (1.1 million), such as road travel, according to Visit Florida, the state’s tourism arm.

Some data points to Canadian tourism drop, but full picture not yet available

Statewide estimated visitor data for the first quarter of 2025 won’t be available until May 15, according to Visit Florida. In 2024, about 3.27 million Canadians visited Florida, representing about 2% of tourists to the state.

Gov. Ron DeSantis’ office said in April that in January and February, Florida saw a "0.5% increase in Canadian air visitation" compared with the same months in 2024.

Aviation firms and airports have said they’ve seen decreases.

OAG Chief Analyst John Grant told PolitiFact that in early March, there were 698,000 scheduled airline seats, or seats made available by airlines, between Canada and Florida from May to August. "That now stands at 628,000, so a reduction of 10%," he said. He noted that his firm’s data includes anyone booked on a flight between Canada and the U.S., so a traveler could be a connecting passenger from China travelling via Vancouver to Denver, for instance.

Courtney Miller, founder of aviation data firm Visual Approach Analytics, told PolitiFact that Canadian airline seats to Florida are down by 13% in May and 10% in June compared with the same periods in 2024. 

"I have not seen any data that suggest 80%," Miller said. "We are seeing overall Canadian travel to the entire U.S. down no more than 25%."

A Visual Approach Analytics analysis showed that from January to March 27, two Florida airports — Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport and Orlando International Airport — had the biggest decrease in monthly arrivals from Canadian airlines, at 20% and 12%, respectively. 

Other Florida areas are also experiencing declines in travel. "Fort Myers and Palm Beach are down 30% and 43%, respectively, compared to April schedules as they existed on January 1, 2025," the analysis said.

A Miami International Airport spokesperson told PolitiFact that from Jan. 1 to April 23, the number of arriving passengers from Canada was down 5.9%.

National data for Canada-U.S. road travel also shows a drop.

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Donald Trump

stated on April 8, 2025 in a speech

The U.S. is “taking in almost $2 billion a day in tariffs.”

U.S. Customs and Border Protection data shows about 4.1 million travelers arriving from the northern border in March 2025, compared with 4.9 million the same time last year — a 17.4% decrease. The data doesn’t specify whether the travelers entered the U.S. as tourists.

Richard Clavet, a longtime owner of Hollywood, Florida, motels and hotels, said his properties for years have attracted Canadians who gather at the pool or Friday night hot dog cookouts. Clavet told PolitiFact he saw a drop in Canadian visitors starting in February.

"A lot of them were blaming it on the political situation," said Clavet, who is originally from Quebec. "They were not happy with the way Trump was talking about their prime minister. They wanted to boycott the U.S. and make a statement so a lot of them canceled."

Clavet estimated that in recent months the number of Canadians staying in his properties was 50% less than last winter.

Usually, Canadians rush to book for the following year, but that hasn’t happened this year, Clavet said. 

"They want a piece of the sun where it’s safe, the weather is great, that’s what I have been working on for so many years," Clavet said. "I really enjoyed dealing with Canadians; hopefully they will come back."

Our ruling

Moskowitz said Canadian tourism to Florida has declined by 80%. 

His office pointed to information from a TV report, which cited information from aviation data firm OAG. The firm said April airline bookings recorded in March for the entire U.S.-Canada market were down 75.7% compared with 2024. It did not report Florida-specific numbers. 

Other data sources confirm a drop in Canadian tourism to Florida, but by far less than the percentage cited by Moskowitz. For example, individual airports in Florida cited declines from 6% to 43% over a few months. 

The statement contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression. We rate it Mostly False.

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